Wednesday, February 10, 2010

That was the winter that was—mid-season report

I'd say this is the TW3 report, but the tenses would be wrong, since we're really only about half way through. So, maybe I'll call it TITWTI (this is the winter that is), or something. In any case, it's about time to examine where we stand compared to recent winters, look at some condition reports, and prognosticate where we might wind up, as well as spill some fun weather data. And, yes, there's a darned good reason I did the season recaps after the snow had melted last March: time! So this may be rather short and periodically updated.

Now, we know that ski conditions are, uh, pretty awesome. It got a late start, but since then there has been continuous skiing, with only a couple days without at least good conditions. (Ski conditions were discussed at length last year here.)

So, where do we stand? Well, first of all, we're at, as of February 10, 65 days of skiing, of which 61 have been good or excellent. We have not had to contend with the "oh no will it melt" syndrome which has plagued some past ski seasons, and the base is now up to 15 inches, the highest in nine years, with no meltdowns in sight. The City of Lakes went off without a hitch, Mora will as well, and Birkie has two feet of base two weeks before the race. As long as we can make March 15, we'll have 100 days of skiing, and an "excellent" snow year.

What's interesting is that despite the great skiing since early December (even after a couple of minor meltdowns the trails have, for the most part, been resurrected) it has not been a particularly cold or snowy winter. December was about a degree below normal, January, despite a cold start, finished just a tenth below. Snowfall through the end of January was 26.8 inches, of which 20.9 fell in December (2.8 in October, 0 in November, just 3.1 in January). With 11.3 inches so far in February, we're up to around normal. So it's been a very normal winter.

Despite some variability and unusual storms, there have been no real extremes. We've had no brutal cold snaps (no day has stayed below 0) but also no major warm-ups. The latter is, I think, the reason that we've kept our base so well. If you look back at the past few years, every one has a pretty devastating warm-up. Last January 31 it skied to 45 degrees, a week later it was 47. January '08 hit 40 twice (December '07 had as well), 2007 was, well, let's not talk about it, and other years were similar. It got me to thinking: we haven't been above 40 for more than 70 days. What are the records days under x degrees? I delved in to the data to find out.

Longest Second longest Third longest
Temperature Days Ending: Days Ending: Days Ending:
0 7 Jan 7 1912 6 Jan 28 1904 5 Four times
5 12 Jan 12 1912 10 Jan 27 1963 9 Jan 27 1936
10 21 Feb 7 1936 15 Jan 1912/1974 13 Feb 21 1936
15 36 Feb 21 1936 16 Jan 1912/1977 15 Jan 12 1974
20 39 Feb 22 1936 25 Feb 15 1905 24 Feb 12 1904
25 41 Feb 22 1936 32 Feb 8 1978 27 Three times
27 52 Feb 19 1979 47 Feb 9 1912 41 Feb 22 1936
29 52 Feb 19 1979 50 Feb 12 1912 47 Feb 22 1978
30 58 Feb 19 1979 52 Feb 12 1912 48 Feb 25 1939
31 66 Feb 22 1978 58 Feb 19 1979 52 Feb 13 1912
32 66 Feb 22 1978 58 Feb 19 1979 52 Feb 13 1912
33 67 Feb 23 1978 58 Feb 19 1979 53 Feb 13 1912
34 67 Feb 23 1978 60 Feb 21 1979 54 Feb 13 1912
35 71 Feb 21 1969 70 Feb 22 1936 69 Feb 15 1971
36 79 Mar 7 1940 77 Feb 22 1936 75 Mar 15 1975
37 106 Mar 6 1972 84 Feb 13 1943 81 March 9 1978
38 116 Mar 12 1979 106 Mar 4 1972 105 Mar 1904/1955
39 122 Mar 22 1904 116 Mar 12 1979 114 Mar 2 2001
40 122 Mar 22 1904 116 Mar 12 1979 114 Mar 2 2001
42 126 Mar 13 2001 125 Mar 24 2006 122 Three times
45 141 Apr 3 1979 140 Apr 12 1975 135 Mar 24 1956
50 152 Apr 11 1979 149 Three times 148 Several times

Some of these data are pretty amazing. 66 days at or below freezing in 1977-8 is probably the best known. But go a couple degrees warmer, and you get 106 days at or below 37 degrees in 1972, which is, perhaps, just as impressive: it was below 37 from November 21 to March 6! And our last big snow year—the last time Minneapolis banned parking outright on one side of the street. Right now, we have a good chance of overtaking third place for the 37 degree mark, as we are just ten days away (and two weeks out of second). But there have been some impressively long cold streaks in the past. This current streak is long, and cold, but not really historic. Yet.

1 comment:

  1. Nice analysis! It would be a great thing if we can stay below 35 into mid-March. Then it can melt.

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