Saturday, December 5, 2009

Storm speculation

For a while, the models have been hinting at a storm for the middle of next work. A big one. Three feet of snow in the mountains of Colorado, with the low then ejecting east across the Plains. At first, the models suggested that the snow would generally stay south of the Twin Cities, but recent model runs, while not changing the track significantly, have suggested that an inverted trough on the back side of the storm will sit in the Upper Midwest, setting down several inches of snow.

The National Weather Service is excited. With cold temperatures, they are preliminarily talking about seven or eight inches of snow. But they are excited because looking at analog patterns—similar situations in the past—show a storm from January of 1982, which dumped about a foot and a half of snow on the Twin Cities (one of two such storms in a three day period, leading to the greatest snow depth—38 inches—ever recorded, quite literally off the charts). But, even a foot and a half would be exciting enough!

(Again, no guarantees here; the NAM model is not biting to the same degree. We'll see.)

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