December, 2007.
Yes, back then. Rain, warm (a day with a low of 31 and a high of 36) and a storm which surprised us by redeveloping coming back and, as someone said at the time, "hip-checking" Minnesota. Yes, it melted some and turned the base to mush, and then—four inches of new snow. December 21: mist and mid-30s (think yesterday). December 22: rain to snow, temperatures dropping, but no real accumulation (very icy roads, though). December 23: cold and getting colder, three inches of snow. Updraft discussed it back then (but only before, not during) and it occurred during a split pattern, like now. Parts of Wisconsin (Birkieland) got significantly more.
The current storm seems to be having similar ideas. The latest NAM is pushing it further west, which means that while we're all rain now, the line of heavier snow is just in to Wisconsin. But it's trending west. Fifty miles and we'll see six, not three, inches of snow.
We'll see.
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