Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Don't believe the hype

If you listened to Minnesota Public Radio this morning, you probably heard a conversation between the host and one of their meteorologists (who blog at the Updraft Blog, which is very good). They were talking about the possibility for a snowstorm on Monday, and made it sounds, well, not like a done deal, but like a definite possibility.

Don't get excited. This is not the case.

Is there a chance of a slight snowfall next week? Yes. Sure. The pattern will be changing somewhat, and there's a lot of energy hurling through the system which could wind up and dump some snow somewhere over the upper-Midwest. Is it something that has been on the model runs over a couple of days? Not so much. Last night's GFS (the 00z run, which comes out around 11 p.m. CST) showed a possibility of a minor snow event on Monday, with marginal heights, resulting in a wet snow which would probably melt on the warm ground. The 06z showed something similar. The most recent run shows, well, maybe some snow over Chicago? Who knows.

So, yes, there's a possibility. Keep your eye out. But I wouldn't scrape the storage wax off the good skis just yet.

(The good news is that the models are hinting at a proper winter pattern around the first of December.)

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