Actually, likely not here for a little while. But it doesn't mean we can't have a bit of weather speculation. First off, the NWS points out that if today's rain storm were hitting a month later
IF THIS WAS EARLY NOVEMBER...OUR REGION WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT HEAVY SNOWFALL NOT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN.Alas, we just don't have the elevation. (I was at 4300 feet in New England last week and it was snowing lightly.)
Then, well, there's this weekend, when we may see some snow. Probably not enough to accumulate, and since it has yet to drop below freezing the ground will not hold it. But we may see snow, as it will be cold enough that anything that falls will be solid and white. (Not bad, considering our average high is still in the low 60s.) This weekend will be considerably colder; highs may struggle to reach 40 on Saturday or Sunday.
Why do I mention this? Because the last time it was this cold, this early, ABR had good skiing. On October 12, 2006, the high in Minneapolis was 39. In Ironwood it was 30 and they had 18 inches of snow, and ABR groomed. It's not currently forecast to be quite that cold. And lake effect definitely depends on how the winds set up, not just how cold it is (although the westerly winds forecast would be good). In any case, keep your eye on the UP next weekend. I'm not saying it will snow, but I've looked back to 1970 and there are no colder days in the first half of October. If we have a high below 40 and a low in the mid-20s, watch ABR indeed.
In other words, I'll be taking rock skis to the Whistlestop Marathon.
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