That was the winter that was—mid-season report

I'd say this is the TW3 report, but the tenses would be wrong, since we're really only about half way through. So, maybe I'll call it TITWTI (this is the winter that is), or something. In any case, it's about time to examine where we stand compared to recent winters, look at some condition reports, and prognosticate where we might wind up, as well as spill some fun weather data. And, yes, there's a darned good reason I did the season recaps after the snow had melted last March: time! So this may be rather short and periodically updated.

Now, we know that ski conditions are, uh, pretty awesome. It got a late start, but since then there has been continuous skiing, with only a couple days without at least good conditions. (Ski conditions were discussed at length last year here.)

So, where do we stand? Well, first of all, we're at, as of February 10, 65 days of skiing, of which 61 have been good or excellent. We have not had to contend with the "oh no will it melt" syndrome which has plagued some past ski seasons, and the base is now up to 15 inches, the highest in nine years, with no meltdowns in sight. The City of Lakes went off without a hitch, Mora will as well, and Birkie has two feet of base two weeks before the race. As long as we can make March 15, we'll have 100 days of skiing, and an "excellent" snow year.

What's interesting is that despite the great skiing since early December (even after a couple of minor meltdowns the trails have, for the most part, been resurrected) it has not been a particularly cold or snowy winter. December was about a degree below normal, January, despite a cold start, finished just a tenth below. Snowfall through the end of January was 26.8 inches, of which 20.9 fell in December (2.8 in October, 0 in November, just 3.1 in January). With 11.3 inches so far in February, we're up to around normal. So it's been a very normal winter.

Despite some variability and unusual storms, there have been no real extremes. We've had no brutal cold snaps (no day has stayed below 0) but also no major warm-ups. The latter is, I think, the reason that we've kept our base so well. If you look back at the past few years, every one has a pretty devastating warm-up. Last January 31 it skied to 45 degrees, a week later it was 47. January '08 hit 40 twice (December '07 had as well), 2007 was, well, let's not talk about it, and other years were similar. It got me to thinking: we haven't been above 40 for more than 70 days. What are the records days under x degrees? I delved in to the data to find out.

	Longest		Second longest		Third longest
Temperature	Days	Ending:	Days	Ending:	Days	Ending:
0	7	Jan 7 1912	6	Jan 28 1904	5	Four times
5	12	Jan 12 1912	10	Jan 27 1963	9	Jan 27 1936
10	21	Feb 7 1936	15	Jan 1912/1974	13	Feb 21 1936
15	36	Feb 21 1936	16	Jan 1912/1977	15	Jan 12 1974
20	39	Feb 22 1936	25	Feb 15 1905	24	Feb 12 1904
25	41	Feb 22 1936	32	Feb 8 1978	27	Three times
27	52	Feb 19 1979	47	Feb 9 1912	41	Feb 22 1936
29	52	Feb 19 1979	50	Feb 12 1912	47	Feb 22 1978
30	58	Feb 19 1979	52	Feb 12 1912	48	Feb 25 1939
31	66	Feb 22 1978	58	Feb 19 1979	52	Feb 13 1912
32	66	Feb 22 1978	58	Feb 19 1979	52	Feb 13 1912
33	67	Feb 23 1978	58	Feb 19 1979	53	Feb 13 1912
34	67	Feb 23 1978	60	Feb 21 1979	54	Feb 13 1912
35	71	Feb 21 1969	70	Feb 22 1936	69	Feb 15 1971
36	79	Mar 7 1940	77	Feb 22 1936	75	Mar 15 1975
37	106	Mar 6 1972	84	Feb 13 1943	81	March 9 1978
38	116	Mar 12 1979	106	Mar 4 1972	105	Mar 1904/1955
39	122	Mar 22 1904	116	Mar 12 1979	114	Mar 2 2001
40	122	Mar 22 1904	116	Mar 12 1979	114	Mar 2 2001
42	126	Mar 13 2001	125	Mar 24 2006	122	Three times
45	141	Apr 3 1979	140	Apr 12 1975	135	Mar 24 1956
50	152	Apr 11 1979	149	Three times	148	Several times

Some of these data are pretty amazing. 66 days at or below freezing in 1977-8 is probably the best known. But go a couple degrees warmer, and you get 106 days at or below 37 degrees in 1972, which is, perhaps, just as impressive: it was below 37 from November 21 to March 6! And our last big snow year—the last time Minneapolis banned parking outright on one side of the street. Right now, we have a good chance of overtaking third place for the 37 degree mark, as we are just ten days away (and two weeks out of second). But there have been some impressively long cold streaks in the past. This current streak is long, and cold, but not really historic. Yet.