Birkie Weather Speculation

The long-range models are now reaching to Birkie week. So far it's only the GFS, but it starts to give us an idea of what might be happening two weeks down the road.

I'll make short remarks about each model run between now and then—but don't start waxing quite yet.

Feb 13 00Z: Major warm-up, then light rain, ending, temperatures in the 40s.
Feb 13 06Z: No warm-up, heavy snow (6-12") evening before Birkie.
Feb 13 12Z: Cold (0-10 above), clear.
Feb 13 18Z: Major warm-up, dry.
Feb 14 00Z: Seasonable, dry, no warm-up.
Feb 14 06Z: Seasonable, dry, no warm-up.
Feb 14 12Z: No real warm-up, heavy, wet snowstorm the day before race day.
Feb 14 18Z: Clear and cold (0-10 above).
Feb 15 00Z: Dry or maybe flurries, seasonable.
Feb 15 06Z: Lingering snow, cold (then very cold after race day).
Feb 15 12Z: Possible light snow, cold.
Feb 15 18Z: Clear and chilly.
Feb 16 00Z: Cool, possible flurries.
Feb 16 06Z: Cool, possible warmer storm after Birkie.
Feb 16 12Z: Seasonable, possible snow ending around race time, storm then warm after race.
Feb 16 18Z: Cool, dry, no warmup after race.
Feb 17 00Z: Seasonable, dry.
Feb 17 06Z: Seasonable, dry.
Feb 17 12Z: Cool, dry.
Feb 17 18Z: Cool, dry.
Feb 18 00Z: Seasonable, dry.
Feb 18 06Z: Cool, dry.
Feb 18 12Z: Seasonable, dry.
Feb 18 18Z: Cool, dry.
Feb 19 00Z: Cool, dry.
Feb 19 06Z: Seasonable, probably dry but possible flurries. Possibility of light snow next Wednesday or Thursday to soften conditions for the race.
Feb 19 12Z: Cool, dry. Still a bit of snow showing up between now and race day.

Comments Feb 17: It seems that the model runs are converging on a solution which is for a cool, dry Birkie, probably with a bit of new snow by then, but I bet it will be firm, fast and fun, if a bit nippy. Now, let's see the next model run—if it's anything like normal, it will be completely different than the last few.

I'll continue to update this, hopefully daily, as the race nears—and it will be interesting to see how the model(s) converge on a solution.