April snow?

We'll begin some snow speculation on this site. I was going to save that for next year, but it turns out we might have some snow this week. Probably enough for a day or two of skiing in Elk River, especially since their trails may have frozen a bit in the cold weather this week so they won't just thaw the snow out from underneath wicked fast.

This has been in the cards for a while, but the models do not do well in the spring, so outside of about 100 hours, they provide sketchy details at best. However, run-to-run continuity has been very good, so it looks pretty good for something this coming week. The MPX AFD is talking about a cooler storm, mostly if not all snow, with 8-15 inches possible. Which is, well, definitely not a bad thing. As in

"FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REALLY GETS INTO GEAR OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MN BY DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS LOOK FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED REPORTS OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES THIS REGION. WENT WITH WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF REGION." (Emphasis theirs; they always write in all caps.)

Now, do the models support this? Well, yes and no.

The guys over at the NWS might be getting a bit carried away, and there is the chance of a dry slot pushing up (per the NAM). For instance, here is the QPF (quantity of precipitation forecast) from the 00z NAM.
Northern and Central Minnesota get walloped, but there is a tight gradient down south here. This has been the thinking of the NAM for several runs, and it's not inconceivable since the storm will be winding up pretty well. This would give great conditions for the Range next week, but probably not enough to groom locally.

The GFS was forecasting more QPF in its last run and a new one is just coming out, let's check it out. Okay, I have to wait a few minutes, it's only out to 54 hours right now, but looks, well, interesting. Lots of forcing in Southwestern Minnesota, and a rain/snow line right around Red Wing, so snow for the Cities. A sub-996 low, too, which should throw a bit of moisture in, too. Now the GFS has a slightly different idea.There's still a comma-head type of look to the precipitation field, but it's in a different area completely. The NAM has the bottom of the half inch QPF going from Prairie du Chien to about Brainerd; the GFS on that same map has this QPF from Nebraska to Wisconsin, and a different bullseye. For now, between the NCEP models, I'm hoping for the GFS, and for it to move a bit east. I can hope, right?

The ECMWF? Well, it's similar. But it will all depend on the track. We probably won't know much more until tomorrow, or Monday. Still, excitement abounds.