If you think I'm not jealous …

… you'd be wrong. Plan for tomorrow is to head to Eldora (I'm in Boulder for the weekend) for some fresh snow. But if the 00Z NAM model verifies and 28" of snow hits the Twin Cities, I will be missing out on the street skiing festival of a lifetime. If I were there I believe the plan would consist of several cans of Surly, my rock skis and every non-limited access road I could find (Imagine skiing down the High Bridge—I'm imagining it). Have fun. I figured after three good snow years in a row, there was little chance of a fourth (haven't been four good snow years in a row since the early '80s). Well, I'll eat my words now.

Out east

Yes, I know there's been skiing in Duluth. And the UP. I'm in Boston this winter, waiting for snow.

It's snowing in Duluth

That's the report from Jakob and the airport. If it continues, the top of the hill should see 5-6 inches by later this evening. If it can firm up or crust up at all tonight, it could be some darn good (for May) skiing tomorrow morning. I'll take pictures.

Weather speculation: snow in May?

There are only two months I've not skied in (I think I skied in July in Australia; I can't really remember): May and September. I knocked off October last year. And, perhaps, May will soon be in the books.

Why? Because it might snow in May. Yes. May! Not a few flakes in May (that's happened before) but real, actual accumulating snow falling south of Duluth. The weather models have been hinting at this for a few days now, but I wasn't getting excited. Now? I'm getting excited.

There are quite a few variables which need to come together for May skiing. First, you need enough snow. With the ground quite warm, you need several inches to freeze up as a slushy layer on the ground and provide a base. Second, you really would like someone to roll or groom it. It counts if it's not, but it's less fun. If you can't find grooming, you would very much like the temperatures to fall below freezing for an evening and freeze up the crust, as crust skiing on untrod trails can be fantastic. You'd prefer the snow to fall at night when the solar radiation of the sun doesn't warm the ground so it won't stick. Finally, you need just the right combination and timing so that the snow doesn't disappear before you have a chance to ski.

With all that said, what can be expected? Well, first we have to pinpoint the jackpot for the snow. The latest models from Earl Barker's great page have pretty disparate maxima. According to the GFS, there will be two bullseyes with enough (~6") snow to make skiing feasible:

with the highest totals around 6" just north of Brainerd and another swath of decent snow over near Rhinelander. Unless it goes significantly further west, only some of the near-Brainerd trails (Northland, Grand View) would be in the running. And maybe something way east in Wisconsin.

The NAM, however, paints a prettier picture:

Not only does this bring the snow further south—with the Cities getting in on the action and more than three inches falling just north, but it gives a real dump—more than six inches!—across a nice swath of Wisconsin. In this scenario, the best skiing would be between Wausau, Eau Clare and Hayward, so various trails in Northwest Wisconsin would be in the running, although there's not really anything in the 8"+ section.

However, if we speculate that both models are off and the solution lies in between, it might put the most snow somewhere in the heart of Birkieland. Would I scoff at 8" of snow on Saturday on the Birkie Trail? No. No I would not.

It's coming

We have flurries to hand out, a winter to recap, and some other sundries. This weekend is planned as a weekend to catch up on the Tubes. So stay tuned.

One last day: Tahoe XC

What is likely the last ski of the season for me was a lovely, 1:45 skate at Tahoe XC. The snow had frozen up from the sun the day before (sadly, there was no crust skiing to be had this week in Tahoe; too much new snow, so not that sad) and good for skating, with a bit of new snow overlaying the harder-pack. No pictures; it was snowing lightly the whole time.

I hit mostly trails I hadn't skied the day before, including the Lakeview trail (only one side was groomed, a long uphill and then a nice downhill on the way back). Then it was off to ski around the hills at the end of the loop, and apparently in the wrong direction. I went up Nose Dive and most of the rest of the hills were steep up and then gradual down. So I spiked my heart rate a few times and didn't get any thrilling downhills to show for it. Oh well. I definitely want to come back for the Great Ski Race next March.

It was snowing again by the time we left—they got 12-24 inches of powder overnight—and it took us 7 1/2 hours to get to SFO for the redeye to MSP. For 35 miles were were in "chain control" which meant we averaged 17 mph for close to three hours, and it was just a brutal drive. We may not have a 120 inch base in the Twin Cities, but it's real nice to have trails in our backyard.

Tahoe XC

The weather took a break today and we actually saw the sun. My dad and I decamped for Tahoe XC and got there (after some hideous traffic on CA-89) to find midwinter, picture-perfect conditions. (We had a foot of snow last night and tomorrow promises another foot or two.) There's little better than throwing on some generic blue wax and kicking all morning. The trails at Tahoe XC are tamer than at Tahoe-Donner—there are no 1000 foot climbs to windblown peaks but it is definitely better for training. This is not to say there aren't hills; there certainly are. There are certainly portions which are hillier, but it's not built in to the side of a mountain. There are also fantastic views of Lake Tahoe (which we could see!) which only sweetens the deal. It was just a lovely day for a ski, and on April 3, no less.

By the time we came in from 20+ k in the morning, the sun made an appearance, which instantly softened the trails and rendered my kick wax useless. No matter, a bit of skating got me in to a well-deserved lunch, and I grabbed the proper skate skis for some slow skating on the now-wet powder in the afternoon. By the time we were leaving the temperature had dropped and a snow shower was passing through; tomorrow promises to be a snowy adventure, especially for the drive over the pass to San Francisco.

I made a bit of a deal with Tahoe XC's proprietor/groomer/whateverer that I'd do the Great Ski Race (won by Duluth's own Adam Swank this year) and he'd come and ski the Birkie. Seems fair.

Oh, and pictures (click them to make them big, more to come later):