Now I'm concerned

The long-range GFS model that came out shows way too much warm air for my liking. Pretty please have it be wrong.

Murphy Hanrahan

After a week of illness (it seems like more—but I haven't skied since Monday) I hit Murphy for some afternoon, above-zero fun. The trails are in very good shape—nothing thin to speak of, and the only complaints would be that it is groomed in a bit of a U-shape in places, and the classic track is skated out on some of the narrow hills (as might be expected). The hills were mostly powdery and fun, although as usual you'll want to know how to make high speed turns before trying them out.

On my way out, the Man was out citing those without trail passes.

Why I am not too, too concerned about the thaw next week

That's a map of snow cover this morning. The gradients are 0-2 (brown), 2-4, 4-8, 8-16, 16-24 and 24+ (light purple). Look at the snow cover to our southwest. There's at least 16 inches from northwest Missouri to northwest South Dakota. There's at least 8 inches from northwest Arkansas to northwest Nebraska. So any warm air, coming from the southwest, will have to cross hundreds of miles of cold, deep snow pack, moderating it dramatically (melting is endothermic, too, which can cool the air just above the snow). In addition, moisture released form melting snow may build a deck of stratus clouds, muting the ability of the sun to heat the air. This is why, despite 1000-500 mb thicknesses of 552, the air temperatures are not forecast to rise much past freezing. And although we don't have the snowpack in the Twin Cities that they have over the Buffalo Ridge in Southwest Minnesota, the snow down there should help to protect us, to some degree, from a total meltdown.

I hope.

More locally, check out the latest snow depth maps from the U.

That's more than 30" of snow over some of Southwest Minnesota (and, yes, not even a foot here in the Twin Cities), where the warm will come from. That's way more than normal—in the 99th percentile. In recent years, we've often seen a lot of snow over Northeast Minnesota (and, more interestingly, the north has often fallen in to high percentiles, with the south in lower ones), with little down south—a steep gradient which is often exacerbated by warm air which blows over the snow-free areas and eats in to the first snow it finds. This year, the southwest has more snow than up north, which should be good for snow for everyone.

I hope.

In any case, we are entering a dreaded split-flow situation, which brings warm, dry air to the area. We can only hope it is short-lived and does not do much to our base, and good, cold, moist weather returns soon.

Sick

Thank goodness I have a rollerboard in my basement. I have a nasty head cold and don't want to spend any time outside. Yes, I know there is fresh snow and great skiing. Hopefully I'll be able to enjoy it this weekend. And hopefully the snowcover (down to Missouri) will temper any warmer weather coming up next week.

Lebanon Hills

After getting bumped, I hit Lebanon around sunset. The tracks are good and solid where they exist, but someone seems to have decided not to set tracks up the hills (?!) which is really frustrating when you are trying to stride up boilerplate. Coverage is quite good with some leaves in the tracks in places. It would be nice if the trails were straightened out a bit; some of the curves are really too tight to be conducive to skiing.

Waterville

With snow falling in Boston, we headed north to ski on real hills. There were several options, although the best (reports of more than a foot in Vermont) was too far for a feasible day trip. We chose to head up to Waterville Valley in New Hampshire because there are big, long hills for striding (okay, that was the draw for me, my folks were interested in the nice trails and scenery).

The snow clearance in Massachusetts was impressive, especially for a Sunday morning. Five inches of snow, and phalanxes of half a dozen plows clearing the whole road shoulder to shoulder. It was good for snow clearing (better than Minnesota) but to pass the plows you had to hold your breath and thread the needle between two plows; staying behind them meant crawling along at 20 mph. The snow let up at the border and we hit the trails before noon.

I first skied up the Livermore Road—a ski trail in the winter—which is a 400 foot striding climb. With the new snow, the track was iffy, but the kick was decent. I came down that trail and, nearing the bottom, turned up the never-groomed but skied-in backcountry trail up to Greeley Ponds, which was surprisingly good. I was able to stride or double pole in the skied in tracks most of the 5k up to the ponds, although up top there was more snow and some big drifts where the wind blew the snow off the frozen ponds—fun to ski through 6 foot drifts (and there were only about 18 inches on the ground). I then turned around and zipped down to the parking lot, executing a couple tele turns at speed and not hitting anyone coming up.

After a well-deserved lunch, I hit up Tripoli Road, also a ski trail in winter, and a favorite haunt of Kris Freeman, who supposedly double poles up most of it. I was more in to striding, which would have been splendid but more new snow was shearing in the tracks. I did some repeats up the 700 vertical climb and then glided down in the snow content. And … it was 25˚ above zero.

Weston ski track

Back in Boston for the New Year (after a trip to Chicago—running along the lakeshore is nice but a. they need a snow gun out along the lake and b) they need some hills) I ventured out to the ever-reliable Weston Ski Track. I did some technique with my dad and then some double poling in about four inches of new snow on top of the manmade base in some areas and the golf course in others. If there was a week to be out of the Cities, the weekend of -20 might be it (although the race at Battle Creek looked like fun times).

I went in and talked to the owners after skiing (I worked for them in high school) and found out that they've been making snow for 25 years, in very marginal conditions (although being on the Charles River gives them a good water supply, temperatures are quite warm). They can get their guns up and running quite fast, even for short windows of time, and can blow in a k of snow with only a couple of days of cold weather. Hopefully in two decades the Twin Cities snowmaking venues will be as good. (Of course, their Pisten Bully is broken right now and until they get a new one next week the piles of manmade snow are rather uneven.)

Tomorrow, off to Waterville Valley for all sorts of fun, especially a 500 vertical foot striding hill.